Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain
There’s been a bit of scuttlebutt on television and the internet over the presidential campaign of Sen. Barack Obama ever since a certain Polar Bear hating “Hockey Mom” from the Yukon was selected as the Republican nominee for vice president.
The media loves a good story and Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska is one part soap opera, one part Lifetime movie of the week and one part “Annie Get Your Gun.”
And while hogging up the press time, national polls show that McCain is finally leading Obama by a slight margin (or has at least tied him). And the USA Today/Gallup Poll has McCain over Obama by 10 points! The Huffington Post is reporting that there maybe money troubles (and lack of pro-Obama 527 groups) a-foot.
Everybody panic!
I realize these numbers look dire, but let me give you a few reasons why you shouldn’t let the pundits on TV and your “Obama should have picked Hillary Clinton” naysayers let you down.
1. National averages DON’T MATTER: For one, they’re based on the “popular vote.” You know? That vote you don’t win the presidency by. Former Vice President Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000 and look what good it did him. The only thing that matters is the electoral college. That means you have to look at how Obama is doing state-by-state, NOT by national polling and Obama’s state numbers aren’t dire at all.
Political blog Wonkette has crunched the numbers and found that of the states likely to go for Obama and the states likely to go Sen. John McCain, Obama will possibly nab 243 electoral college votes over John McCain’s 194. All is left are the toss-up states and Obama only needs to win a combination of a few of them.
So then Barry simply has to win Colorado, where he just threw A HUGE SEXY PARTY FOR AN ENTIRE WEEK (and also where one of those Democratic Udalls is coasting to a Senate victory). Then he wins and Sarah Palin goes back to her distant Ice Palace in terrible shame.
Or he could pull off Florida — where the lovely old Jewish folks don’t cotton much to crazy ass Governor Palin — … because if you’re looking at the Pollster map, 243 + 27 = a happy number.
Or he could win Kerry states + Virginia + Iowa or Nevada or Colorado or like any other random state.
Or he could lose Colorado and instead win Nevada & Montana — where Ron Paul is on the ballot!
And in case you haven’t noticed, all of the above scenarios exclude freaking Ohio. (Wonkette, “Pathetic, Failed Presidential Candidate Barack Obama To Win Presidential Election“)
2. Don’t skim the surface of the polls — look deeper! Things aren’t as ugly as it seems once you crack a poll open and see what’s inside. In the newly released NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll McCain leads 45-46, but the margin of error is three. The Democratic Party still has a higher favorable rating (49-40); Obama voters are still more enthusiastic (88-78); Obama is seen as more likely to bring change (55-32); And 74 percent of respondent still see McCain as closely tied to the policies of President George W. Bush.
3. Just WHO are these polls sampling anyway? If your primary phone is your cellphone, then it’s not you. The polls overwhelmingly rely on older voters who still use land lines for the phones and still have the number listed in phone books. Older voters tend to be more conservative. Without a varied sample it’s hard to gage how millions of people feel who aren’t using a land line to get their calls.
4. More Democrats have registered to vote than Republicans. The number is overwhelming — 11 million new Democratic voters. How does McCain have the lead when there are way more Democrats registered to vote than Republicans?
Some polling experts say the changing state of party affiliation in the field is slow to be reflected in polls themselves. Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg told the Huffington Post that “when it comes to registration and turnout, the polls often do a very bad job of taking those [factors] into account,” because newly registered voters aren’t in the voter files used by firms that survey public opinion. “You could make the argument they are under-representing new registrants,” she said, which would mean that the Democrats new edge would not be taken into account. (Huffington Post, “Poll Madness: McCain Takes Lead Even As Democrats Out Register Republicans“)
The story also mentions the day before USA Today announced it’s 10 point lead for McCain poll numbers, The Associated Press reported that during the primary “more than 2 million Democrats [were added] to voter rolls in the 28 states that register voters according to party affiliation. The Republicans have lost nearly 344,000 thousand voters in the same states.”
Nationwide, there are about 42 million registered Democrats and about 31 million Republicans, according to statistics compiled by The Associated Press.
The Democrats have posted big gains in many competitive states, including Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Florida. They have also been targeting historically Republican southern states.
Since 2006, the Democrats have added 167,000 voters in North Carolina, while the Republicans have added 36,000. (USA Today/Associated Press, “Democrats post big gains in voter registration“)
5. Wait for the debates. This contest is far from over and anything can happen between now and November. The presidential and vice presidential debates are guaranteed to be must-see-TV due to the star wattage of the political players and the heightened interest in this campaign. (In the USA Today/Gallup Poll 80 percent said they were watching the election closely.)
Barack Obama has honed his debating chops with Sen. Hillary Clinton as a sparing partner since last summer. As long as he keeps his answers pithy, concise and memorably clever he could easily charm his way back to the top over a sometimes fumbling, bumbling, buzz word throwing John McCain.
And Gov. Palin, despite her great ability to read a teleprompter, has never faced any sort of intense debate. How studied will she be in the national and international issues? I’m sure she’s going through cram sessions of information now, but she’s going up against Sen. Joe Biden who kills at debates and doesn’t just study foreign policy, he lives it as Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
So don’t panic, Obama-ites. His campaign is not a corpse.
Stay calm. And remember to vote in November.
After all, dead campaigns don’t get high favorable ratings.
